Rarity of Joint Probability Between Interest and Inflation Rates in the 1998 Economic Crisis in Indonesia and Their Comparison Over Three Time Periods

After more than twenty years, there has been no economic crisis as severe 1998 based on inflation and interest rates. It is interesting to compare the conditions before after in last decade Indonesia. Therefore, this study aims analyze relationship between rates using a copula-based joint distribution. The return period of estimated from results showed that Gumbel copula most suitable bivariate construct distribution 1990-2019, with an upper tail dependency 0.6224. Moreover, 389 years 95% confidence interval [47, ∞] years. This result uncertain because many factors affect rate decreased crisis. Meanwhile, decade, were much lower two previous periods.